The Golden Bears hold a slight series advantage, winning seven of the 13 meetings but have won seven out of the 11 games played since CU has been a Division II member in the NSIC. CU snapped a three game losing streak to the Mustangs last year with a 29-17 win at the REC in Marshall, Minn.
The 29-17 win last season also started their six game road winning streak as the team looks for a perfect road record for the 2010 season.
A win for Concordia doesn't necessarily secure a Mineral Water Bowl invitation, as the NSIC would need to send three teams to the NCAA Playoffs. A loss by Minnesota Duluth, Augustana or St. Cloud State could send ripples in the NCAA Super Region 3 rankings, but on paper it is looking likely that all three teams will receive playoff berths.
But a Concordia loss shakes things up. They are currently a game ahead of Winona State in the NSIC Overall Standings, but the Warriors hold the tie-breaker in head-to-head and in NSIC South Division play, meaning a Concordia loss and a Winona State win would put the Warriors in the driver's seat for a bowl bid, especially if they are NSIC South Division Champions or Co-Champions. So if Concordia loses, they'll hope for a Wayne State win in Winona because the Golden Bears hold head-to-head advantages over Wayne State, Minnesota State and Bemidji State.
However, these scenarios have not been provided by NSIC headquarters or the Mineral Water Bowl committee, so official tie-breaking scenarios have not yet been made public.
The Golden Bears and Mustangs will not only be battling each other on the field, but it looks like they'll be battling the weather as well with a winter storm warning in effect for much of the state tomorrow. The forecast calls for a game time temperature of 37 degrees but a "feels like" temperature in the upper-20's. Expect a mix of rain and snow throughout the day with winds coming from the northwest at 20 miles per hour.
Looking at the season statistics for each team, it's uncertain who has the advantage in inclement weather. Concordia's pass defense has been the most dominant aspect of the team over the past month and a half, surrending just 128.1 yards per game over the last six including back-to-back games allowing just 99 yards. They've also shut down some of the better passing attacks in the league, holding Augustana and Josh Hanson to 119 yards and limiting Wayne State to just 107 yards.
They'll face another solid passer this week as SMSU boasts quarterback Ryan Ratekin, the fourth leading passer in the league with 209.8 yards per game and the third most touchdowns, 18.
Concordia's secondary has not only displayed impressive coverage led by corners Jason McCalope (right) and Denzell Blackmon and safety Arnold Doxie, but the pass rush has allowed them to clamp down. Sophomore defensive end Zach Moore leads the NSIC and is eighth in the nation in sacks with 10.0 while senior linebacker Trevor Glomski adds 6.0 sacks to the mix including 2.0 last week.
Offensively, Concordia leads the league in passing yardage behind junior quarterback Spencer Ohm and his NSIC-leading TD-INT ratio (21 TD, 6 INT) but also runs the ball effectively with junior Sam Campbell boasting the third most rushing yardage in the league (809) with eight combined touchdowns (6 rush, 2 rec).
And while the weather will likely be poor, SMSU's new stadium features a fast artificial playing surface, which should allow junior playmaker Charles Gilbert (left) to get deep into SMSU's secondary. Gilbert and Ohm hooked up last week for Concordia's longest play from scrimmage, a 61 yard touchdown and Gilbert now has 10 receiving touchdowns (11 total TD's) all of which have been at least 23 yards. Gilbert has 411 of his fourth-highest NSIC receiving yardage (813) on his 10 touchdown grabs, averaging an impressive 41.1 yards per touchdown catch.
SMSU also allows nearly 200 yards per game on the ground while Concordia's offensive line has provided a stable and strong force, so if Gilbert is not able to beat the Mustangs deep, the Golden Bears should be able to move the chains with the ground game.
But the Mustangs are able to cause turnovers led by Curt Gosser's five interceptions. He'll have a tough time this week as Concordia is tied for second in the nation in fewest turnovers committed with just nine through 10 games.
And despite the different statistical trends, the Mustangs and their 25+ seniors will be fighting hard to leave their careers on the field with a victory, especially on their home field.
It will certainly take another complete team performance like last week for the Golden Bears to make their case for a postseason invitation.
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